Statistician General of the Federation, and head of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Dr. Yemi Kale
The latest figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Nigeria’s Q2-19 GDP figure, showed that the economy grew slower, with real GDP printing 1.94% y/y (vs. an upwardly revised 2.10% y/y in the previous quarter and 1.89% y/y in Q1-2018).
However, the growth estimate missed several experts’ projections including Cordros’ and Bloomberg’s compiled average estimate of 2.69% y/y and 2.33% by 75bps and 39bps, respectively.
A quick look at the breakdown of the GDP figure showed that the oil sector rebounded, growing by 5.15% (compared to -1.46% in Q1-19), after five consecutive quarterly declines. The NBS estimated crude oil production during the three-month period to be 1.98mb/d, 0.14mb/d higher than the 1.84mb/d reported in Q2-19, but slightly lower than the 1.99mb/d (revised from 1.96mb/d) recorded in Q1-19. The sector contributed 8.82% of total GDP (vs. 9.22% and 8.55% in Q1-19 and the corresponding quarter of 2018 respectively) during the review period.
Conversely, output in the non-oil sector printed a disappointing 1.64% y/y growth in Q2-19, 83bps lower than the rate recorded in the first quarter of 2019, as well as 40bps lower than the growth rate achieved a year ago. The non-oil sector contributed 91.18% to total GDP, (vs. 90.78% and 91.45% in Q1-19 and the corresponding quarter of 2018 respectively).
Analysing the breakdown of three of the biggest components of the GDP: Services grew by 1.94% y/y (vs. 2.41% y/y in Q1-19 and 2.12% y/y in Q2-18); Agriculture grew by 1.79% y/y, (vs. 3.17% y/y in Q1-19 and 1.19% y/y in Q2-18); Manufacturing (Industries) grew by 2.10% (vs. 0.42% y/y in Q1-19 and 0.40% y/y in Q2-18).
In terms of contribution, services, industries, and agriculture, respectively, accounted for 53.96%, 23.21%, and 22.82% of overall output growth.
