Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that the domestic economy sustained its positive growth momentum in Q1-24, as the real GDP grew by 2.98% y/y (Q4-23: +3.46% y/y). The growth outturn is 10bps higher than Cordros’ estimate (+2.88% y/y) and 51bps lower than Bloomberg’s median consensus (+3.49% y/y) estimate.
According to the GDP breakdown provided, the oil sector remained positive, albeit slowed to 5.70% in Q1-24 (Q4-23: +12.11% y/y), amid a 0.9% y/y increase in average crude oil production in Q1-24 (1.54mb/d vs. Q4-23 1.53mb/d | Q1-23: 1.53mb/d). Consequently, the oil sector contributed 6.38% to the total GDP (Q4-23: 4.70%) during the review period.
Similarly, the non-oil sector grew slower by 2.80% y/y in Q1-24 (Q3-23: +3.07% y/y). Accordingly, the non-oil sector contributed 93.62% to the total GDP (vs 95.30% in Q4-23).
From a sectoral perspective, Agriculture GDP slowed by 0.18% y/y (Q4-23: +2.10% y/y), Industries GDP moderated by 2.19% y/y (Q4-23: +3.86% y/y), while Services GDP increased to 4.32% y/y (Q4-23: +3.98% y/y).
In terms of contributions, Services, Agriculture, and Industries had a total of 58.04%, 21.07% and 20.89% of overall output growth, respectively.
