Given the recent improvement in Nigeria’s crude oil production levels, we are optimistic that the oil sector will return to positive territory in Q4-23, more so that the base in the corresponding period of the prior year was low. We expect crude oil production to settle at 1.41mb/d in Q4-23 (prior estimate: 1.53mb/d), translating to an oil GDP growth of 14.93% y/y. Likewise, we expect the non-oil sector growth to settle in the positive territory, and expand by 2.19% y/y in Q4-23, in line with our growth expectations across the Service, Manufacturing, and Agriculture sectors. Overall, we expect growth to print 2.74% y/y in Q4-23 and revise our 2023E growth forecast to 2.54% y/y (Previously: 2.92% y/y).
