Economy sustains positive growth path for the third consecutive quarter in Q3-23
According to the recently released GDP report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the domestic economy grew by 2.54% y/y (Q2-23: +2.51% y/y). We highlight that the growth in the quarter was marginal, reflecting the impact of the high production costs induced by the FX devaluation in the period amid the improvement in the oil sector. The GDP print is 41bps lower than Cordros’ estimate (+2.95% y/y) and 35bps lower than Bloomberg’s median consensus (+2.89% y/y) estimate. Analysing the breakdown provided, we note that the oil sector contracted by 0.85% y/y (Q2-23: -13.43% y/y) while the non-oil sector grew slower by 2.75% y/y (Q2-23: +3.58% y/y). On an attribution basis, the Services, Agriculture and Industries sectors contributed 2.08%, 0.38% and 0.08%, respectively, to GDP growth.
