Nigeria’s headline inflation maintained its uptrend, rising by 129bps to 24.08% y/y in July (June: 22.79% y/y). The outturn is 59bps and 48bps higher than Cordros’ estimate (23.49% y/y) and Bloomberg’s median consensus estimate (23.60% y/y). Similarly, on a month-on-month basis, headline inflation rose by 76bps to 2.89% (June: 2.13% m/m).
Food inflation grew stronger in July by 173bps to 26.98% y/y (June: 25.25% y/y). Increases in prices of oil and fat, bread and cereals, fish, potatoes, yam and other tubers, fruits, feats, vegetables, milk, cheese, and eggs triggered the rise in food prices. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation increased by 3.45%, relative to the 2.40% m/m recorded in the previous month.
In line with the removal of gasoline subsidies, we highlight that the NBS has changed its definition of core inflation to ‘All items less farm produces and energy’ (previously: ‘All items less farm produces’).
Consequently, the core inflation rose by 41bps to 20.47% y/y (June: 20.06% y/y). The highest increases were recorded in prices of passenger transport by air, passenger transport by road, vehicle spare parts, medical services, maintenance, and repair of personal transport equipment etc. Elsewhere, the core index increased by 34bps to 2.11% m/m in July 2023 compared to the previous month (1.77% m/m).
