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Released Q1 GDP figure indicates good economic takeoff in January 2018

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday, released Nigeria’s Q1-18 GDP figure, showing a positive start to the year, with real GDP growing by 1.95% y/y (vs. revised 2.11% y/y in the previous quarter and -0.91% y/y in Q1-2017).

The growth estimate came in line with our 1.93% y/y estimate for the period  but 72 bps below Bloomberg’s compiled average estimate of 2.65%.

A quick look at the breakdown of the GDP figure shows that the oil sector grew by 14.77% (compared to 11.20% in Q4-17 and -15.60% in Q1-17). The NBS estimated crude oil production during the three months period to be 2.0mb/d, 0.05mb/d and 0.25mb/d higher than the 1.95mb/d and 1.75mb/d reported in Q4-17 and Q1-17 respectively.

The sector contributed 9.61% of total GDP (vs. 7.35% and 8.53% in Q4-17 and the corresponding quarter of 2017 respectively) during the review period.

Output in the non-oil sector also expanded, growing by 0.76% y/y in Q1-18, 69 bps lower than the rate recorded in the final quarter of 2017 but 4 bps higher when compared to the growth rate achieved a year ago. The non-oil sector contributed 90.39% to total GDP, (vs. 92.65% and 91.47% in the three months to December 2017 and Q1-17 respectively).

A breakdown of three of the biggest components of the GDP shows that Services contracted by 0.47% y/y (vs. 0.10% y/y in Q4-17 and 0.37% y/y in Q1-17). Also, Agriculture grew by 3.0% y/y, 123 bps and 38 bps lower than growth rates recorded in Q4-17 and Q1-17 respectively. Manufacturing grew by 3.39% y/y – 326 bps and 203 bps higher than growth rates recorded in Q4-17 and Q1-17 respectively.

In terms of contribution, services, industries, and agriculture, respectively, accounted for 54.3%, 24.0%, and 21.7% of overall output growth.