Nigerian economy ends year with more exports than imports for the first time
Available international trading statistics have revealed that unlike previous years, the Nigerian economy is ending 2019 business year on a positive trade balance.
Otherwise, relative to the corresponding period of the previous year, Nigeria’s trade surplus position improved markedly by 117.4% to NGN1.39tn in Q3-19.
Fact check showed that the rapid pace of expansion was on account of a significant improvement in export (+9.0% y/y) which ran ahead of import (-7.5% y/y). Dissecting the components, it was observed that non-oil export (+561.7% y/y) was the primary driver of the total export, even as oil export – 70.9% of total export – moderated in the period.
Further breakdowns revealed manufactured goods (+1415.0% y/y) as the key support for non-oil export. Meanwhile, the decline in imports emanated from the combination of manufactured goods (-3.5% y/y) and other oil products (-54.6% y/y), both of which account for 81.3% of total imports. We see legroom for further improvement in the trade balance, amid the lingering land border closure, which is expected to keep import at bay. To add, a recovery in crude oil price is also expected to lift overall export in Q4-19.
