Nigeria’ll continue to import petrol in 2019 and Kachikwu’ll not resign, says analysts
Recent pronouncement by the Minister of state for Petroleum that he would resign come 2019 if Nigeria failed to stop importing refined petroleum products has raised reactions from industry experts.
Whereas many of them argued that he may be swept away in the next cabinet reshuffle, other say he did not ‘watch his back’ well before the comment.
According to the group that argued that he did not watch his back before the statement, there has been no concrete policy made by his ministry to ensure local adequacy of petroleum products come 2019 based on the current level of investment in the refining sub sector.
According to Dr. Ken Igboanugo, “Even if all the four refineries are working at 80 per cent capacity and Dangote Refinery comes on stream, their combined products cannot serve the country”.
“Recently, the Minister warned other refinery licensees to begin to construct their own or lose their licenses. This shows that his vow has failed on arrival because none of them can start now to do so due to the forex crisis that has became intractable.
“Recall that the IMF had warned the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) that momentary injection of dollars to the forex market cannot do the magic of rates convergence and that there is a limit to which it can continue to do the same thing. Remember, if continue to do the same thing the same way; you will definitely continue to get the same result. As far as am concerned, the CBN is running a circle of impossibility.
In his submission, an energy consultant who pleaded anonymity said “Such comments are what politicians do make and cause confusion later. I know that Kachukwu is never a politician, but he has unfortunately joined the bandwagon”.
“Before the Minister would make such comment, he need to have met all the licensees who have failed to begin to build their refineries and find out from them what went wrong, see how he can assist them in solving the problem, see that they have started something.
“Every business in Nigeria revolves around petroleum products and for us to have enough, it will take the running of not less than 10 refineries that produce at full capacities and the chances of this to happen between now and 2019 is not there, so we should not be fouled.
He added that the stability of local refining capability is dependent on the early passage of PIB Bill, saying the way the industry looks now, only a risk taker of the heist order can invest in refinery business.
Business Hilights recalls that the Minister, Dr. Ibe Kachikwu had said he would walk away from his job if the 2019 target, which he claimed he set for himself, is not achieved.
Quoting him, he said “2019 is the target time…I target 2019. If I don’t achieve it, I will walk…I put the date and I will achieve it,” the minister told BBC’s Stephen Sackur on ‘Hardtalk’.
Though he did not state when in 2019 the target would be met, observers say part of his plans includes reshaping the almost ‘comatose’ refineries, which he said have been able to produce 7 million litres since 2015. He also hopes the construction of a new refinery, for which an MoU has been signed, would help achieve his target.
