Whereas signs emerging from recent China-Africa Forum and series US driven foreign policy narratives will sharpen the US-China rivalry in Africa come 2019.
However, while the US is multiplying warnings about the perils of Chinese debt-fuelled spending for economic stability, China will continue to broaden its engagement across the continent, with particular focus on East Africa.
This is one of the key findings of RiskMap 2019 (https://bit.ly/2GjBJUe), a publication forecasting political and security risk for business leaders and policy makers across the world, by specialist global risk consultancy Control Risks (www.ControlRisks.com).
George Nicholls, Senior Partner for Southern Africa based in Johannesburg, averred that “So far, the US-China rivalry that dominated global headlines in 2018 has played out less visibly in Africa than on other continents. Support for China or the US has not emerged as a defining issue in African politics, with most countries keen to pursue closer ties and seek financing from both sides rather than falling neatly on one camp. In 2019 we might see this changing.
“While still the largest investor on the continent, the US has seen its engagement on the continent become more narrowly focused on security matters under the current administration – in contrast to China which has made formidable inroads in sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade.
“2019 will show revived US interest in development finance and lending for infrastructure projects on the continent and a more concerted US commercial strategy towards Africa is likely to take shape. The increased rivalry will therefore open up additional investment opportunities but will also present African countries with increasingly starker foreign policy and commercial choices.”
Top five global risks for 2019 as revealed by Control Risks’ include among other, that US-China trade rift will present a new global order and define global geopolitics in 2019; The stand-off between the three major data regulation ideologies will present a new level of risk for international business in 2019.
Otherwise, for China, data is something to be controlled; for the EU, it is something to be protected; for the US, it is something to be commercialised. Businesses must be prepared for the challenge of collecting, storing and transferring data within and between these three domains against a backdrop of inconsistent enforcement and escalating cyber security threats.
Another revelation by Control Risks’ noted that the vice of legislative gridlock will close on policy making in Washington and throw the US into a period of political uncertainty.
Besides, there will be extreme weather disruption as some of worst business disruption in 2019 will stem from extreme weather and its consequences.
The last but not the least happenstance that will shape 2019 is the fact that multinationals will become nationless
