Stable power: Generation hiccups’ll distort 10,700MW demand beyond 2020—Report
…AS NDPHC set to switch on 4 plants with 1,262MW in 2 months
Nigeria’s aggregate electricity demand will hit 10,700MW by 2020, but there are indications that supplies may not hit the demand projection.
This came from the latest report from the Ministry of Power, Works and Housing seen by Business Hilights Abuja Bureau chief which revealed that epileptic power supply will continue in Nigeria and even go beyond target year of 2020 due to the fact that “the generation from new power plants that are envisaged to be in operation by 2020 is limited”.
However, the Niger Delta Power Holding Company (NDPHC) has hinted the readiness of about four power generation plants that are capable of adding 1,262MW of electricity to the power grid.
Coming under the National Integrated Power Projects (NIPP) currently being managed by the Niger Delta Power Holding Company, three of the plants would be fired up in a couple of weeks as all impediments hampering their completion had been removed.
Still on the power shortage in 2020, the document, entitled: ‘Transmission Expansion Plan’, which was obtained from the Ministry of Power, Works and Housing, stated clearly that “In 2020, the total generation required to meet the load in Nigeria is 10,700MW and since the generation from new power plants that are envisaged to be in operation by 2020 is limited, the existing generating units, which are currently out of service for various reasons, must be made available if 10,000MW of load is to be served.”
It added that “Also, the planned measure for rehabilitation and replacement of existing generation capacity at the end of the economic lifecycle will require huge investments”.
“The availability of gas is the most uncertain factor in the generation development. A large quantity of the present gas production is exported. To make more gas available for electricity generation huge investments in gas exploration, gas treatment facilities and gas supply systems (pipelines, etc.) will be required.
However, the document disclosed reasons for the failure to put Nigeria on the map of constant electricity nations, saying “Reasons for unavailability are: planned outages for maintenance or forced outages due to technical deficiencies of assets, as well as unplanned unavailability due to shortage of fuel supply or sabotage of gas pipelines.
“A further analysis of provided information shows that about 20 per cent of installed generation capacity is based on plants, which are 25 years old or even older. Some of these plants have an efficiency of less than 30 per cent. It is obvious that most of the old thermal power plants are, or will be causing more frequent forced outages or long term planned maintenance outages in the near future.”
The report noted that the old plants should be replaced by new facilities with higher efficiency, adding that some of the generation companies had already started the modernisation process during the past 15 years.
The Ministry also averred that “The availability of gas is the most uncertain factor in the generation development. A large quantity of the present gas production is exported. To make more gas available for electricity generation huge investments in gas exploration, gas treatment facilities and gas supply systems (pipelines, etc.) will be required.
According to the document, “Presently, the produced energy cannot cover the demand. Main reasons for shortage of generation are outages of generation units and the unavailability of gas for power generation.
“The gas supply is very often interrupted because of sabotage of pipeline network. The main concern for the future expansion of generation, however, is the availability of gas for additional generation capacity and the expansion of the gas pipeline network. Currently, most of the power plants are installed in the southern part of Nigeria close to the oil and gas fields.”
It said based on provided information, the already installed gross power generation capacity stood at about 13,300MW, of which some 11,800MW were noted as net available capacity.
The report disclosed further that considering the latest information by the generation companies, about 9,500MW (80 per cent) of this capacity should have been available at the end of the year 2015, but only 5,900MW net capacity has been available as statistics of the National Control Centre (NCC) show.
