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New forecast for sub-Sahara African economies sees Ghana, Ethiopia overtaking Nigeria

Fresh results of disquiets trailing faulty backup policies after Nigeria’s exit from recession have emerged, showing that Nigeria’s growth forecast of paltry 2.6 per cent is no more a regional economic force.

This stemmed from the forecast by the economic analysis provider FocusEconomics, which revealed that Ghana’s economy will grow at 6.8 per cent in 2018 while the Ethiopian economy is expected to boom at 7.5 per cent.

Otherwise, Ghana’s economy, out of 10 countries is expected to be the second highest growing in sub-Sahara Africa after Ethiopia.

The average for sub-Sahara Africa is projected at 3.3 per cent, but Nigeria according to experts may not crawl even closer to the average this year, thus suggesting that it may be too long before Nigeria will once again become an economic force to reckon with in the region.

According to the report, after sub-Saharan leader, Ethiopia and Ghana is Tanzania projected to grow at 6.5 per cent, Kenya is projected to grow at 5.3 per cent, and Mozembique with a growth forecast of 4.7. The DR Congo is projected to grow at 3.3 per cent, Nigeria at 2.6 per cent, Angola at 2.2 per cent and at South Africa is expected to grow at 1.3 per cent.

Analysts are upbeat that Ghana’s robust performance in exports and higher investment inflows will stir Ghana’s growth this year.

FocusEconomics Report averred that “The economy’s elevated public debt burden and a high level of non-performing loans in the banking sector pose downside risks to the outlook, however, FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth of 6.8 per cent in 2018, which is up from last month’s forecast, and project it moderating to 6.0 per cent in 2019”.

“Ghana’s economic activities gained ground in November as improving conditions in the domestic economy boosted demand.

“Exports of gold, cocoa and oil surged in the month, pulling the trade balance out of deficit. While the economy is undergoing a fast-paced recovery after falling commodity prices swerved growth off track last year, a heavy public debt burden threatens to disrupt long-term stability. To help restructure the high debt load, the export-oriented nation sold GH¢5.29 billion ($1.16 billion) in long-term bonds on November 30, 2017,” it said, adding that, “side from issuing a new five-year bond, the sale was largely comprised of a reopening of existing bonds.

“Moreover, as part of the government’s commitment to rebalancing the country’s finances, multiple public sector reforms have been planned for next 2018. The reforms will seek to eliminate bureaucratic hurdles to efficient public service delivery, which should in turn better support the development of the private sector.

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