Home / Banking/Investments / Factors that drove Nigerian out of recession in Q2 unveiled
Udoma, Buhari, Adeosun
L-r: Minister of national Planning, Senator Udo Udoma, President Muhammadu Buhari and Minister of Finance, Mrs. Kemi Adeosun

Factors that drove Nigerian out of recession in Q2 unveiled

Since the release of data showing that the Nigerian economy exited recession in second quarter of 2017, the Business Hilights Economic Research Team (BHERT) started enquiry into what actually happened within the period that spurred a positive .055 per cent growth in Gross Domestic Products (GDP).

The Statistician General of the nation and chief executive of National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Dr. Yemi kale had on Tuesday, September 5, 2017 announced that the economy achieved a positive 0.55 per cent growth in GDP, meaning exit from recessionary regime.

However, findings by BHERT identified three key occurrences that effected the exit.

One is the surge in inflow of investments by   95 per cent to $1.7bn.

Otherwise, investment inflows into Nigeria rose by 95.02 per cent from $884.1 million in the first quarter of this year to $1.79bn in the second quarter. This represented a 29.8 per cent rise over first quarter.

The NBS had disclosed in a capital importation report that “The total value of capital imported into Nigeria in the second quarter of 2017 was estimated to be $1.792bn. This figure was $884.1m more than the figure recorded in Q1 2017, a growth of 95.02 per cent”.

“Year on year, this was an increase of 43.6 per cent from the $1.04bn recorded in Q2 of 2016. A month on month analysis of capital importation in the second quarter shows that the month of May recorded the highest of amount of capital importation ($616.5m), followed by June with $612.6m and May with $563.3m.

NBS also averred that “The main driver of the quarterly growth in capital importation in the second quarter was Portfolio Investments, which increased by 145.7 per cent, followed by Other Investments, which grew by 95.02 per cent, and then Foreign Direct Investment, which increased by 29.8 per cent over the previous quarter”.

Another critical factor was the investment inflow in telecoms sector which grew to N1.5 tn within the second sector.

Besides, the commercial banks in the country technically reduced lending to economy By N292bn in Q2

NBS in its report titled: “Selected Banking Sector Data” also disclosed that Electronic Payment Channels in the Nigeria Banking Sector hits N19.78 trillion in Q2 of 2017.

According to NBS report, Commercial banks’ lending to 17 sectors of the economy fell to N15.7 trillion in Q2  of 2017 from N16 trillion in first quarter (Q1)  2017, indicating a drop of N292 billion or 1.8 per cent. The 17 sectors according to NBS include Agriculture, Mining and Quarrying, Manufacturing, Oil and Gas, and Power and Energy, among others.

When compared to lending in the second quarter of 2016, commercial banks’ lending to the sectors increased by 0.57 per cent to N15.5 trillion. The report by NBS also showed that oil and gas sector got the largest credit of about N3.5 trillion, followed by the manufacturing sector with N2.22 trillion while power and energy dropped by 1.3 per cent to N466billion in Q2 2017.

In terms of credit to private sector, a total of N15.71 trillion worth of credit was allocated by the banks in Q2 2017. Oil and Gas and Manufacturing sectors got credit allocation of N3.53trillion and N2.22 trillion to record the highest credit allocation in the period under review. The report showed that the volume and value of electronic payment transactions stood at 327,366,042 and N19.78 trillion at the end of Q2 2017.

Analysts say with the rising industrial productivity and dropping inflation coupled with sustained injection of forex by the apex bank, chances are that the economy may comfortable cross the 2.0 per cent mark in growth by year end.

Other facts and figures secured from NBS website showed that total imports value of N2,595.5 billion in Q2 2017 was 13.51% higher than Q1 2017 and 9.97% higher than Q2 2016.

Value of Imported Agricultural goods were 16.01 % higher than the value recorded in Q1,2017 but 61.02% higher than Q 2 2016.

Value of Raw material imports were 17.4 % more than Q1,2017 but 63.20% higher than the value in Q2 2016.

Solid Minerals imports in Q2 2017, increased by 1,527.44% compared to Q1 2017 but was 1,947.52% higher than Q2 2016.

Energy goods imports in Q2 2017 were 177.77 higher than Q1 2017 and compared to Q2 2016 when no energy goods imports were recorded.

Manufactured goods imports value was 9.5% higher in Q2 2017 than the level in Q1 2017 but 18.33% lower than Q1 2016.

Other oil products imports value was 6.4% lower than in Q1 2017 and 18.48% higher than Q2 2017.

Total export value stood at N3,102.0 billion in Q2, 2017 representing an increase of 3.2% over Q1 2017 and 73.48% over Q1 2016.

Agricultural goods export value in Q2 2017 was -1.03% lower than Q1 2017 but 94.05% higher than Q2 2016.

Raw material exports value increased by 31.8% in Q2 2017 against the level in Q1 2017 but 206.4% higher than Q2 2016.

Solid Minerals exports value in Q2 2017, decreased by -27.58% compared to Q1 2017 but was 122.01% higher than Q2 2016.

Energy goods exports value in Q2 2017 was 117.84% higher than Q1 2017 but 606.01% higher than the value in Q2 2016.

Manufactured goods exports were 17% lower than the value in Q1 2017 but 157.16% higher than Q2 2016.

Crude Oil exports in Q2 2017 were 2% more than the value recorded in Q1 2017 but 63.25%% higher than Q2 2016.

– Other oil products exports in Q2 2017 were 12.5% more in value than in Q1 2017 but 117.33% higher than Q2 2016.

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