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Economic recovery deepens as Nigeria’s headline CPI sustains downward trend

Latest figures churned out from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on April 2018 inflation report, have indicated continuous recovery of the economy from recession as headline consumer price index (CPI) dropped to 12.48 per cent.

Having started since 2017, this figure marks the fifteenth consecutive month and the lowest level since February 2016.

Headline inflation was 12.48% y/y in April, moderating from 13.34% y/y in March. The data came in 9 bps touch below our forecast of 12.57% y/y, although in line with Bloomberg compiled average estimate of 12.48% y/y. On month-on-month basis, the headline index increased by 0.83% (vs. 0.84% the previous month).

Whereas food inflation rose by 14.80% y/y in the review period, notably lower than the 16.08% y/y recorded in March, activities in the real sector picked.

Besides, similar to the previous month, the highest increase was recorded in the prices of bread and cereals, fruits and vegetables, oil and fats, coffee, tea and cocoa, milk, cheese and eggs, fish, and potatoes, yam and other tubers. However, on m/m basis, food inflation increased at a faster pace of 0.91%, compared to the 0.90% recorded in the previous month.

Core inflation was 10.9% y/y during the review period, vs. 11.2% in March. Similar to the observed trend in the previous month, the highest increases were reported in the prices of fuel and lubricants for personal transport and transport equipment, vehicle spare parts, garments and clothing materials and other articles of clothing and clothing accessories, hairdressing salons and personal grooming establishment, and paramedical services and pharmaceutical products.

On a m/m basis however, the core index increased at a faster pace of 0.87%, 3 bps above the 0.84% reported in March.

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